This low, driven by a deep dive in the jet stream, is not of pure tropical origin. But it has already caused flooding and devastating landslides in Puerto Rico, and even deaths in the Dominican Republic, when 9 inches of rain fell in just a few hours Friday night on the capital of Santo Domingo. The National Hurricane Center will likely label the system a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and both Broward and Miami-Dade could end up in a “cone of concern” sooner or later. While it is likely that the low will be, at worst, a subtropical or tropical storm, there are one or two models that are predicting a November hurricane in South Florida. November is the last month of hurricane season and typically tropical activity begins to subside. However, the 2022 hurricane season has been back-loaded, and nearly all of this year’s blockbuster Atlantic storms formed after August. The State of Florida has been hit by tropical systems nine times this month in the past 170+ years—about a 5 percent chance per year. Seven of those nine came from the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That makes this week’s developing system, if it consolidates and hits Florida, pretty rare. But what is extremely rare is for the Florida peninsula to be hit by a hurricane, regardless of where it originated, in November. There has only been one recorded hurricane to hit the peninsula in November dating back to 1851 — the so-called Yankee Hurricane that hit Miami Beach (near present-day Bal Harbor) on November 4, 1935. It was a Category 2! Currently, the forecast calls for the frequency and intensity of precipitation to increase as we approach the middle of the week. It will be increasingly windy, with dangerous sea conditions and a high risk of currents. Winds and waves will combine with a full moon and rising sea levels exacerbated by climate change to cause significant coastal flooding. Communities such as Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach, Miami Shores and neighborhoods near Biscayne Boulevard, including Edgewater, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and the Florida Keys, must prepare for the potentially worst seawater flooding of the year. The closest point of approach of the system’s center to Ft Lauderdale and Miami is expected to be Wednesday through early Thursday. But it is too early to tell what form the system will eventually take – low pressure, subtropical storm, tropical storm or hurricane. Obviously, no one wants to deal with a hurricane any time of year, especially now that holiday music is playing on the radio. Decades ago, I might have been quite dismissive of such a low-probability event. But I’ve been seeing too many extreme weather events caused by global warming lately to rule out another near-unprecedented event.
