Most of his meetings are scheduled for Tuesday, including a bilateral meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Deputy Prime Minister and Trade and Industry Minister Denis Madurov. There is no word yet on a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but it cannot be ruled out. Jaishankar’s visit assumes significance as it comes days before the G20 summit in Bali, scheduled for November 15-16. This will be the first time since the war in Ukraine that Putin and Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, will be in the same room. Jaishankar’s trip is seen as a pivotal moment, with Delhi being billed as a potential negotiator between the two sides. He last visited Moscow in July 2021. India has reportedly intervened quietly in recent months when there has been a stalemate. In July, India had reached an agreement with Russia to ship grain from Black Sea ports. Many of these messages have been quietly delivered and Delhi is positioning itself as a player with credibility on both sides. But, this didn’t always work. The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered help for peace talks in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month. However, Zelenskyy rejected the offer, according to the report. The report said that according to a statement released by Zelensky’s office, “Zelensky told him that Ukraine will not hold any negotiations with Putin, but said that Ukraine is committed to a peaceful settlement through dialogue.” The statement noted that Russia had deliberately undermined efforts for dialogue, it said. But with winter approaching in the conflict zone, there is a sense that both sides would like a ceasefire before early next year when they can regroup and resume the conflict. Many see this as a potential opportunity for a ceasefire, and Delhi could mediate between the two sides. For Delhi, the bilateral aspect is key. This is the first winter in three years when Russian military supply lines are under pressure due to the ongoing eight-month war in Ukraine and, at the same time, Indian and Chinese troops are locked in a border standoff in eastern Ladakh. For India, which depends on Russia for its defense supplies, this is the most important pillar of the relationship. The new element is the energy nexus, as Russia is reported to have become India’s biggest crude oil supplier in October 2022 as refiners boosted the market for discounted marine oil. This added a new element to ties with Moscow, which have not gone down well with Ukraine as well as with Western partners. Jaishankar’s visit is expected to look into this aspect as well, and officials said this will be part of his conversation with Manturov, his counterpart on the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation, IRIGC – TEC. “Issues related to bilateral economic cooperation obviously, in various fields, will be discussed,” MEA official spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said on Thursday ahead of the visit. What is also important is that it is Modi’s turn to visit Russia this year, and if a possible visit takes place next month, Jaishankar will be there to lay the groundwork. Ahead of Jaishankar’s visit, Putin has been gushing about Modi and India. He had praised India calling its citizens “talented” and “driven”, a week after heaping praise on Modi and calling him a “true patriot”.
