The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring two potential systems, one of which could affect the southeastern US and the Bahamas in the coming days. Subtropical Nicole has developed north of Puerto Rico and is causing a large area of disorganized rain and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then northwestward into the southwest Atlantic where environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development. SEE ALSO: How warm water powers the world’s most powerful hurricanes Nicole’s current forecast track is expected to affect the northern islands of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. Although Nicole is currently a subtropical storm in the Atlantic, it still carries the risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall across much of the US Southeast coast, including eastern Florida, and parts of the Bahamas this week . Those of interest in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm, hurricane and thunderstorm watches could be issued for a portion of these areas through early Monday. The NHC pegs the chance of formation at 80% in the next 48 hours and 90% in the next five days. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will end on November 30.
Frequency of November storms
While November does not produce Atlantic hurricanes every year, they have occurred during the last month of the season for many years. In fact, from 1950-2021, the average was one produced every three years. Only a few hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1950. Specifically: November 15-23, 1985: Hurricane Kate, with 120 mph (190 km/h) winds November 13-23, 1999: Hurricane Lenny, with 250 km/h wind gusts November 5-9, 2008: Hurricane Paloma, with 250 km/h wind gusts November 4-11, 2009: Hurricane Ida, with sustained winds of 100 mph (165 km/h) November 20-26, 2016: Hurricane Otto, with wind gusts of 185 km/h It was notable that two simultaneous hurricanes churned in the Atlantic in November. Hurricanes Lisa and Martin made it the third year on record to accomplish the feat, the first time since 2001. If two more systems develop this month, it will tie 1961 as the most active November on record. Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest developments in the Atlantic hurricane season.
