The climate talks, known as Cop27, begin in earnest on Monday when more than 90 heads of state gather in Sharm el-Sheikh amid warnings from scientists that the world is heading for catastrophic climate collapse without further, deeper cuts in its warming emissions. planet. Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, has warned governments heading to Egypt that they are facing “economically devastating levels of global warming” and that their efforts to stem that catastrophe have been “woefully short-lived”. The Biden administration aims to enter Cop27 with a climate of determined optimism, officials said in briefings, having successfully secured passage of the landmark inflation-reducing law thanks to congressional Democrats’ votes over the summer, a $370 billion ($331 billion £) to boost clean energy which is the first major climate bill ever passed by the US. But efforts by the White House to present the US as a strong standard-bearer for climate action risk being undermined just a day after the summit, with midterm elections on Tuesday potentially handing control of Congress to Republicans, who are fiercely critical of what they call the president. radical green agenda’. Biden will arrive in Sharm el-Sheikh on November 11, shortly after the midterm elections, but likely before the full results of the vote. The prospect of the president’s agenda being partially scrapped by Republican gains would dampen hopes for further progress from the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases. The US will arrive with a strong message that it is a climate leader, but the political winds can quickly change Alice Hill “Everyone at Cop27 will be watching the US election and trying to understand what it means, it will affect the overall scope of the talks,” said Nathan Hultman, a climate policy expert who was part of the US negotiating team at last year’s Cop26 Talks in Scotland. “We have this powerful, transformative body of work from Congress that has completely changed the narrative for the US. We are well placed to meet our emissions reduction target, but obviously it is more difficult if the election does not go according to plan.” The US has been a hugely influential but unreliable actor during the climate crisis, with its unusually partisan politics leaving leaders of other countries nervously watching US elections for sharp changes in climate policy. “The US will arrive with a good message to say it’s a climate leader, but the political winds can change quickly,” said Alice Hill, a former adviser to Barack Obama who is now a climate expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “If the results go against the Democrats, we are unlikely to see more climate legislation and there will be more legal challenges to the actions taken by the Biden administration. There will be questions about how far the U.S. can go on climate.” John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, remains bullish on the prospects of using American influence in Egypt. Scientists have warned that the world remains far off track to avoid catastrophic climate change, with emissions reduction pledges to date possibly yielding 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 F) of global warming over pre-industrial times , which is far beyond what is internationally agreed upon. safe limit 1.5C (2.7F). “No country has the right to violate the non-establishment of NDC [a nationally determined contribution to cut emissions]not to step it up where they can and not be part of that effort,” Kerry said in a recent briefing with reporters, adding that “everyone has to do their part here” and he wants to “make sure everyone understands that we are doing the necessary to keep 1.5C alive.” A sign promoting Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Photo: Thomas Hartwell/AP Kerry is likely to come under pressure at Cop27 from developing countries unhappy that the promised $100bn (£89.4bn) a year from rich countries in climate finance has yet to be delivered, as well as over the issue of losses and of damages, which will provide poorer nations with a form of compensation for floods, heatwaves, droughts and other effects they did little to cause. A group of 143 climate groups wrote to Kerry to criticize the US’s “disingenuous” stance on loss and damage, demanding progress on the issue in Egypt. “The United States has stood in the way of establishing loss and damage, and countries that are currently suffering continue to demand this relief,” Ugandan climate justice activist Vanessa Nakate said recently. “I need to see the United States help those who are suffering right now.” Representatives from less wealthy countries say they are almost at their wits end over the lack of progress on reparations paid by the US and others. “We recognize the key role of the US in these climate talks and applaud its steps to take the lead in the fight against climate change at home,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, a Senegalese official who chairs the Least Developed Countries, a negotiating bloc. from 46 nations. But Sarr added that “we have reached the point where our patience to hear the same old arguments has run out. Now, look around the world to see all the destruction that could not be accommodated. It is simply obvious that climate change is beyond our ability to perfectly prepare for it. We cannot rebuild houses with words.” US negotiators have said they are open to discussing the idea at Cop27, but are wary of opening up any sort of liability that could be imposed on America. Kerry said he wanted a “serious dialogue” about the loss and damage but has not committed to any form of agreement. Regardless, Republicans would likely try to block any attempt to provide any kind of new climate aid to developing countries if the GOP prevails in the midterms. “Biden still has two years left in office, and now there are strong regulations that will stick and help spur the existing momentum for renewables and electric cars,” Hultman said. “Depending on this dynamic, the outcome of the election may not matter a great deal. But we will have to see how things are after November 8.” Democrats, meanwhile, not only worry about their electoral prospects for Cop27, but question the timing of the talks, given Egypt’s dismal human rights record. “Egypt was the wrong choice for Cop27,” said Don Beyer, a Democratic congressman who called on Kerry to raise human rights issues with the Egyptian government. “Her government imprisons environmental and political activists and treats NGOs as a threat.”
