Election Day is expected to be mild and dry across much of the United States, except in the West, where heavy rain and snow are possible in California, Nevada and Utah. By late afternoon, the first wave of moisture from Subtropical Storm Nicole should reach Florida. What any of these fallouts might mean for voter turnout is a classic polling room game.
Speculation about weather and turnout dates back to at least the 19th century, when New York newspapers first began publishing Election Day predictions for various parts of the state. It’s not hard to find New York Times headlines like “Election Weather Prophecy. A Government Forecaster Thinks It Will Be a Pleasant Day,” from 1896, or “Broad Areas Face Cold, Rainy Election Day: Doubtful Forecast from Atlantic to Rockies,” 40 years later.
November 1, 1936
November 2, 1895
October 31, 1896
Three New York Times articles about election time, from 1936, 1895, and 1896
Trying to vote—even driving to a polling place or waiting in line—can seem more daunting when the weather turns bad.
“When the weather is bad, then that means the social and perhaps psychological costs of going to the polls increase,” said Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor of government at Darthmouth and co-author of a 2017 paper looking at the weather. affects participation and choices in elections.
Mr. Horiuchi’s paper was one of several that used prefecture-level weather data and voting records to measure the impact of precipitation on elections. The consensus is that an inch of precipitation above the day’s normal rain can reduce voter turnout by as much as one percent. An inch of snow can drop attendance by less than half a percent.
In the tables below, we calculated how much above-average precipitation is expected to fall in U.S. House districts and states (with Senate races) that the Times considers competitive.
Competitive House matches that may have above average rainfall
Above Normal Precipitation (Inches) <1 1 2+
Competitive Senate races likely to have above-average precipitation
Above Normal Precipitation (Inches) <1 1 2+
There are several factors that appear to moderate the effect of weather on participation. A study suggests that weather is not a major factor in competitive racing – like the ones we listed above.
And then there are mail-in ballots and early in-person voting.
Republicans, who once embraced mail-in voting, are now far more likely than Democrats to skip early in-person and mail-in voting in favor of voting on Election Day (at the urging of former President Donald J. Trump ). That leaves Republican voters with less flexibility if the weather is rough on Election Day.
But some Republican officials, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, have broken with Mr. Trump and encouraged early voting. And on Sunday, the California GOP warned of rain on Tuesday and said on Twitter: “Don’t let the rain affect Election Day. Make a plan to vote by mail or early in person TODAY!”
Robert Stein, a professor at Rice University, co-authored a paper published in October that explores how early voting and absentee ballots could moderate the effect of weather on elections. His research found what you might expect: These options appear to weaken the impact of weather on participation.
In states that offered early voting, excessive rain on Election Day reduced turnout by only 0.2 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent decrease in counties that did not offer early voting. Counties that offered no-excuse absentee ballots by mail did not see an improvement in turnout on rainy days compared to other counties, but did see a small improvement on snowy days.
Mr. Stein got to know his research topic firsthand when he went to vote early — in the rain — on Oct. 28.
“I thought, ‘Oh, I’ll go vote in person on a rainy day,'” she said. “When I went to the polling station, at 1:30 in the afternoon there were over 150 people.”
He asked those around him in line why they came to vote early. Convenience seemed to be the point, with someone stopping on the way to pick up groceries and another who had just finished dropping off the kids.
“It wasn’t that the rain wasn’t a hindrance – people were getting wet,” he said. “They just have to choose.”
Mr. Stein’s informal inquiry was interrupted when election officials confronted him and told him to stop asking other voters about their voting decisions.
“I didn’t ask how they would vote,” he said and replied. “I just said, ‘Why are you here on a rainy day?’
