Currently, Republicans control 28 governorship seats, while Democrats hold 22. Two seats are expected to switch parties in this year’s election, both from Republican to Democratic control. Those two states are Maryland and Massachusetts — deep blue states that have moderate Republican governors in office, but where Republicans this year fielded candidates aligned with former President Donald Trump, a nonstarter for most voters in those states. Beyond these two expected partisan swings, we see 12 races – a third of the ballots – competitive to one degree or another between parties. In the rest, the party in control could win again this year. One of the competitive races, in Oklahoma, is leaning Republican. Six of the states lean Democratic: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York and Rhode Island. Meanwhile, five states are clear upsets in our rankings: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. Of those five seats, Democrats currently hold four of them, so Democrats are playing defense in an already difficult political environment for the party. Three of those swing states – Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin – are also expected to become presidential battlegrounds in 2024. That’s important because the winner of this year’s gubernatorial election is poised to certify the 2024 presidential results in an environment of widespread mistrust. about how elections are held. Since our last handicap a month ago, we’ve swung seven races in the GOP’s direction, while we’ve swung two in the Democrats’ direction. Five of the states moving GOP involve incumbent governors who are improving: Florida’s Ron DeSandis, Georgia’s Brian Kemp, Iowa’s Kim Reynolds, Ohio’s Mike DeWine and Greg Abbott of Texas, the other two states moving Republican are blue states. Democratic incumbents appear more battered than expected: Kathy Hochul in New York and Dan McKee in Rhode Island. The two races moving in the Democratic direction are Oklahoma, where incumbent Republican Kevin Stitt faces a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican-turned-Democrat Joey Hoffmeister, and Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro leads controversial Republican candidate Doug Mastriano.
Photos: 2022 Midterm Elections
Given the two near-certain losses in Maryland and Massachusetts, the GOP will need to flip at least two seats to retain its current 28 seats. Our analysis is based on reports with dozens of state political observers, plus national party officials and a look at historical, demographic and polling data. In addition to sorting the contests into Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Likely Republican, Flipped, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic categories, we list the races in descending order, from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic. including each rating category. (The exceptions are the Safe Republican and Safe Democratic categories, which are listed here alphabetically.) If this analysis is accurate, it should be possible to draw a line down the middle, above which all races went for the Republicans and under which all races went for the Democrats. Here is the full summary. Safe Republican (alphabetical by state) Alabama: Incumbent Kay Ivey (R) vs. Yolanda Flowers (D) Arkansas: Open seat (Republican Asa Hutchinson is term-limited). Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) vs. Chris Jones (D) Idaho: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little (R) vs. Stephen Hyde (D) Iowa: Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Deidre DeJear (D) (shift from potential Republican) Nebraska: Open seat (Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is term-limited). Jim Pillen (R) vs. Carol Blood (D) New Hampshire: Incumbent Chris Sununu (R) vs. Tom Sherman (R) Ohio: Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) vs. Nan Whaley (D) (shift from likely Republican) South Carolina: Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) vs. Joe Cunningham (D) Tennessee: Incumbent Bill Lee (R) vs. Jason Martin (D) Texas: Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D) (shift from likely Republican) Vermont: Incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R) vs. Brenda Siegel (D and Progressive) Wyoming: Incumbent Gov. Mark Gordon (R) vs. Theresa Livingston (D) Florida: Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSandis (R) vs. Charlie Crist (R) (shift from Litto Republican) South Dakota: Incumbent Kristi Noem (R) vs. Jamie Smith (D) Alaska: Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) vs. Les Gara (D), Charlie Pierce (R) and Bill Walker (I) Georgia: Incumbent Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D) (shift from Lean Republican) Oklahoma: Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) vs. Joy Hofmeister (D) (shift from likely Republican) Arizona: Open (Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited) Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D) Nevada: Incumbent Steve Sisolak (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R) Wisconsin: Incumbent Tony Evers (R) vs. Tim Michels (R) Oregon: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited). Tina Kotek (D and Working Families), Christine Drazan (R) and Betsy Johnson (I) Kansas: Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) vs. Derek Schmidt (R) Michigan: Incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer (R) vs. Tudor Dixon (R) Minnesota: Acting Governor. Tim Walz (D) def. Scott Jensen (R) New Mexico: Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Mark Ronchetti (R) Maine: Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) vs. Paul LePage (R) Rhode Island: Incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D) vs. Ashley Kalus (R) (shift from likely Democrat) New York: Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Lee Zeldin (R) (shift from likely Democrat) Pennsylvania: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited). Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Doug Mastriano (R) (change from Lean Democratic) Colorado: Incumbent Jared Polis (D) vs. Heidi Ganahl (R) Connecticut: Incumbent Ned Lamont (D) vs. Bob Stefanowski (R) Safe Democratic (alphabetical by state) California: Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) vs. Brian Dahle (R) Hawaii: Open seat (Democratic Gov. David Igg is term-limited). Josh Green (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R) Illinois: Incumbent JB Pritzker (D) vs. Darren Bailey (R) Maryland: Open seat (Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is term-limited). Wes Moore (D) vs. Dan Cox (R) Massachusetts: Open seat (Republican Gov. Charlie Baker is not seeking another term). Maura Healey (D) vs. Geoff Diehl (R)
