The Russian navy continues to outnumber and outflank the Ukrainians in the northern Black Sea. Despite dominance on paper, the Russian Navy is on the back foot following several successful attacks by smaller Ukrainian forces. The October 29 attack on Sevastopol, in which unmanned surface vessels (USVs) with unmanned aerial vehicles attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet, appears to have pushed them further into the shell of their naval bases. Both Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, the largest and most capable ships since the sinking of the Slava-class cruiser RTS Moskva (121), are mostly in port. One of them, the Black Sea flagship Admiral Makarov, is believed to have sustained some damage during the October attack. Heightened defenses following the September discovery of a possible unmanned Ukrainian surface vessel near Sevastopol do not appear to have been successful. During the larger attack on 29 October, several of the USVs penetrated the harbor. Drone footage released shows them operating near warship piers deep inside the base. Russian reports that the drones arrived in Pivdenna Bay suggest they came close to the submarines. A Kilo-class submarine was present at the time, according to USNI News. According to satellite images, the boom’s floating defenses around the warship’s main quay have been pulled across the line of warships. The supply piers, deeper in the harbor, also have floating booms. The use of these booms is still intermittent, but the Russians are deploying them more than they previously had. Russian Kilo-class Krasnodar submarine leaves the Black Sea on March 14, 2019. Cem Devrim Yaylalı Photo used with permission The change in operating standards goes further than frigates. Some coastal patrol areas, which until now came under the jurisdiction of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, the border guard, now appear to have Russian navy vessels. Missile corvettes have been seen patrolling where light-armed FSB patrol vessels used to patrol, according to ship watchers Sevastopol was the main base of the Russian navy in the war and home to most of the Black Sea Fleet, its headquarters and flagship. While this is still the case, there are assets that have also been transferred to Novorossiysk. This base, which has been expanded and improved in recent years, has been a hub for non-Black Sea Fleet warships brought in as part of the build-up for the invasion. The Black Sea Fleet’s four improved Kilo-class submarines are increasingly seen there instead of Sevastopol. But Novorossiysk is much further from the action, and Sevastopol remained the center. It is difficult to estimate how long the heightened state of readiness in Sevastopol will last after the October 29 attack. The Russian Navy has so far been slow to adapt and has been operating continuously since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. For the first months of the war, Sevastopol seemed out of reach for the smaller Ukrainian Navy, but Russian forces implemented some defensive measures. The Russians deployed combat dolphins at the harbor entrance to protect against Ukrainian divers and strengthened their air defenses. But overall the base seemed normal, almost complacent. High-value warships, including the Moskva, continued to use their peacetime berths. And the boom at the harbor entrance was mostly open. HI Sutton Illustration for USNI News The situation changed in the summer, and especially after the discovery of the USV in September near Sevastopol. It was a cross between a canoe and a jet ski and was armed with explosives. That the USV could reach Sevastopol, apparently undetected, was a wake-up call for the Russian navy. Damien Symon, an independent defense analyst, noted that the boom at the port entrance, normally open, suddenly closed regularly. And, in late September, the Russians arranged a new explosion along the side of the main warship berths. This net, which appears to target underwater threats, protects the array of warships from a flanking attack. It can also be extended to cover the front of the line of battleships. For a time, the number of dolphin pens at the harbor entrance increased from two to three. These do not defend against USVs, but will prevent Ukrainian divers from attempting sabotage missions. Animal rotation or increased patrols could account for the increase.
