Here Are The Polls In Some Key 2022 Senate Races

With the path to the Senate narrowed to a handful of battleground states, Republicans and Democrats are looking to polls to gauge their chances of taking a majority in the upper house on Tuesday. While polls don’t always reflect actual voter turnout and many of these races likely won’t be called for days, polls have provided a snapshot of voter sentiment throughout the midterms and could hold some clues about what to expect in the coming days. Here’s a look at recent polls in seven key races: Nevada Polls have mostly shown Republican Adam Laxalt with a lead over Sen. Kathryn Cortez Masto (D) in the Nevada Senate race. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Laxalt ahead by 2.8 points, while a separate polling average from data site FiveThirtyEight had the Republican up 1.4 points.
In polls where he has the advantage, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto by 2 to 6 percentage points. At the same time, several polls also show Cortez Masto ahead of Laxalt, but generally between 1 and 2 percentage points ahead. There are a few factors at play in this situation. First, the economy has been seen as an important issue for many voters, given Nevada’s hospitality and tourism-focused economy and how it has been affected during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The tourism and hospitality industries also pose an additional challenge for lawmakers, who must reintroduce themselves to voters given Nevada’s transient nature. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is likely favored for re-election in Arizona’s Senate race over Republican Blake Masters, as most public polls show the former NASA astronaut leading the venture capitalist, albeit by a narrow margin. An average of polls by FiveThirtyEight shows Kelly ahead by more than 1 point, while a separate average of polls by RealClearPolitics shows Kelly by 1 point. Most polls show Kelly holding a single-digit lead over Masters, though several recent polls have the two tied — and one even has Masters ahead of Kelly by a narrow margin. An Emerson College Polling survey conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 shows Teachers leading Kelly by a narrow 1-point margin, 48 percent to 47 percent, among very likely voters.
It’s still too early to know what effect third-seeded Marc Victor’s decision to drop out and support the Masters will have on the race at this point, since Victor announced it long after early voting opened.
Wisconsin While Sen. Ron Johnson is considered the most vulnerable Republican member of the Senate, recent polls show that he will likely prevail for a third term. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show Johnson leading by 2.8 and 3.4 points, respectively. The most recent polls show Johnson leading by between 1 and 6 points, and a few recent polls show Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes ahead of Johnson. If they do, Barnes is up by just 2 or 3 points — a different dynamic from August, for example, when some polls showed the state’s lieutenant governor enjoying a lead. Jessica Taylor, a contributing editor at the Cook Political Report, changed the nonpartisan polling handicap rating for the race from “toss up” to “lean Republican” earlier this month, given a slightly more favorable political environment. That’s not an unfamiliar prediction from other competitive Senate races that have since tightened after Democrats led their Republican challengers at various points over the summer. Agriculture While polls show Republican Herchel Walker with a slight lead over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in Georgia, it’s possible the race will go into a runoff next month. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show Walker up 1 and 0.6 points, respectively. When The Daily Beast reported in early October its first story alleging that Walker had asked a woman he was in a relationship with at the time to get an abortion, the poll subsequently suggested that this report and others that followed caused temporary blow to his campaign. But given how quickly Republicans have rallied around their nominee, the poll shows Walker still has a shot at the Senate. RealClearPolitics predicts the race will go to a runoff on Dec. 6, while the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Walker with an average of 47.7 percent support to Warnock’s 46.7 percent. One of those candidates would need to get at least 50 percent support to avoid a runoff.
Pennsylvania The Pennsylvania Senate race is seen as the best pickup opportunity for Democrats, but the race has tightened significantly in recent weeks. Although Democrat John Fetterman enjoyed favorable polls this summer and fall that showed him ahead of Republican Mehmet Oz, the dynamics of him and several other Senate races have shifted as voters’ minds have turned to issues like crime and the economy .
There were also questions about whether Fetterman’s debate performance last month against Oz would hurt the Democrat’s election chances. While several polls released after the debate showed Oz leading Fetterman by between 1 and 3 points — including an Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey with Oz at 48 percent and Fetterman at 46 percent — it’s unclear how voters weigh in on the debate. if at all.
However, polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show the race will be a close battle. An average of polls by RealClearPolitics shows Oz leading by 0.1 points, while FiveThirtyEight has Fetterman ahead by 0.1 points.
New Hampshire Before September’s GOP Senate primary, some Republicans were ambivalent about how competitive the New Hampshire Senate race would be if retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc prevailed as the GOP candidate. Except Republican spending poured into the state, only for several groups to reverse as polls showed Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) holding a lead over Bolduc. But the Senate GOP’s campaign arm changed course again and decided to launch a seven-figure ad buy in the state. However, only a few recent polls showed Bolduc ahead—and mostly by 1 point—over Hassan. More polls have Hassan firmly ahead of the Republican, though it’s still likely to be a close race.
An average of polls from FiveThirtyEight has Hassan up 2 points, while one from RealClearPolitics has the senator up 1 point.
Ohio Pelosi says she ‘absolutely’ draws parallels between husband attack, Jan 6 Biden predicts Democrats will win Senate Democrats praised the campaign of Senate hopeful Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio as the congressman kept the race competitive against Republican JD Vance between the summer and fall. And while Democrats believe this could be the year they elect a second Democrat to state office, polls point to a better night for Vance. For one, polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show a much higher lead for a Republican in a competitive Senate race than the others listed here, with Vance leading by 5.4 and 7.5 points, respectively. Some recent polls suggest the Republican has even widened his lead. An Emerson College Polling survey conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1 showed Vance ahead of Ryan among most likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent, compared to another Emerson College poll in October that had Vance and Ryan at 46% and 45%. respectively.