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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Window tape is NOT helpful and does not prevent glass from breaking. Realize that the forecast cone (“cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time period – up to 5 days – & does not indicate the width of the storm and/or the damage that may occur. *** Impacts from Nicole including very high risk of rip currents to beaches in the NE Fl./SE Ga area. during this week…those living or traveling in the Bahamas, Florida and the East Coast of the US should be informed of the latest forecasts *** …. The most anomalous (unusual/rare) part of this storm will be the potential for a relatively strong tropical system at a rather far northern latitude for this end of the season, in addition to an extended period – ~5 days of beach/coastal impacts . .. Especially for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. (given the current prediction of ‘Nicole’):

  • Strong onshore flow will continue and become even stronger this week with life threatening rip currents and dangerous general sea conditions.
  • Surf & breakers reach double digits by late Tue & – at times – will be 12+ feet along area beaches Wed-Fri Seas will be 20+ feet & extremely rough just offshore sea. All marine vessels should remain in port and secure vessels and equipment.
  • St. Johns River – Potentially significant wharf and shoreline damage.
  • Beach erosion will become heavy to severe by mid to late week – a critical aspect of the storm considering the recent damage from Ian
  • Winds 15-25 mph – with higher gusts through Wed morning – increasing to 20-40 mph with gusts of 50+ mph late Wed through midday Fri. Onshore winds will be as high as 60 mph.
  • Precipitation it will average 2-4″+ along the coast… 1-3″+ inland
  • Flood will be a daily threat on the beaches, especially at low tide – becoming more important every day this week. There will also be an astronomical boost due to the full moon phase starting on Tuesday. Lake and – eventually flooding – will also occur along the St. River. Johns and its tributaries.
  • As Nicole moves south then west of Jacksonville, there will be a whirlwind and water flow threat late Wed & especially Thurs into Fri across NE Fl. & SE Ga.
  • Effects on the interior wind, rain, flooding and tornadoes are likely mid to late week BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM. Low Pressure – ’98-L’ began developing over the SW Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and upgraded to a subtropical storm”NicoleEarly Mon, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season that is just about average. & around November 19 AD of the event of the 14th named storm. Don’t get caught up in either subtropical or tropical semantics regarding impacts as Nicole will gradually become purely tropical before reaching Fl. late Wed into Thurs Initially – Nicole is clearly a subtropical low, but should eventually transition to a purely tropical system given the very warm water from Fl. in the Bahamas, except for a ridge-top building near and north of the storm, as the upper-level trough that helped spawn Nicole weakens and moves away. This will be quite a long process: slow to develop as the subtropical storm with frontal features then becomes purely tropical (warm core)…will move slowly northwest before heading west and southwest once established (deeper/stronger) and as H ridge to the north gets stronger while a trough moves into the US Lower 48 helping to create the alley from Fl. to the east coast. The trough will become a major “player” by the end of the week, helping to dictate longer range movement and perhaps helping Nicole’s strength. More worryingly, conditions look rather optimal for strengthening once Nicole becomes tropical and tightens its circulation as the storm begins to move west/southwest. Shear will decrease, humidity will increase, and sea surface temperatures will increase. they are warm including a fairly significant content of deep ocean heat (warm water at great depth). I have noticed many times over the last 20+ years that southwest moving/digging tropical cyclones often intensify. That biggest possibility seems to be Wed/Thu. with a landfall in Fl. southeast coast early Thu. Global forecast models are trending toward a rather remarkable agreement (for a storm in its infancy and still days away from becoming better organized) with the low moving westerly/southwesterly…hitting South and Southeast Florida…in all the way to the West. East Bay or Fl. west coast… before feeling the effects of a strong upper level trough that will then eventually lift the storm and direct it north and northeast as it accelerates. The GFS is strongest with Nicole and therefore a bit quicker to turn Nicole northward. The European and UKMET models are weaker and lead Nicole into the Eastern Gulf before a north/NE turn. All 3 models are similar in timing. A nearby low late in the week will help “ventilate” the middle and upper atmosphere over Nicole, which should at least keep the storm around longer than it would otherwise. In addition, increasing southwesterly shear will parallel Nicole’s motion which reduces the effect of the increasing shear of the front right quadrant of the jet stream. As Nicole is “caught” by the trough and stuck with a cold front, there will be a post (non)-tropical transition that will then accelerate northeastward and move up the US East Coast by the weekend. Dry air will quickly spread to the east “under” – to the south – of Nicole’s center, bringing a quick end to the precipitation with decreasing winds for NE Fl./SE Ga. at least until Friday. night/Sat. Nicole is expected to reach hurricane strength between the Bahamas and Fl. must hit SE Fl. as at least a cat. 1 hurricane. Impacts expected for all of Fl. except for most of the Panhandle… except for the Bahamas + parts of the Carolina’s maybe as far north as the Chesapeake Bay and New England in the long run. One thing is for sure: there will be an extended period – 5+ days – of strong to very strong onshore flow… choppy seas & double digit breaker surf at the beaches… gales & – at times – strong winds.. rain, heavy at times. It looks right now that the peak of these effects will be from Wednesday. through Sat. The exact details remain somewhat unclear and in flux, and there will be some changes in the forecast as to the exact extent and timing of impacts, but Nicole will undoubtedly be a major storm for at least the East Coast from Florida through Caroline. Stay updated throughout Fl. & much of the southeast coast of the US & the Bahamas. Spaghetti plots for Nicole – includes ensemble models (NOAA: addressing underlying uncertainties in the input data, such as limited coverage, biases of instruments or observing systems, and limitations of the model itself. GEFS quantifies these uncertainties by generating multiple predictions, which in turn produce a range of possible outcomes based on the differences or perturbations applied to the data after they are incorporated into the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties): Spaghetti plots for97-Lwhich will remain over the open N. Atlantic but may briefly become “Owen”: Let’s do some “examination”: Shear is currently strong over most of the SW Atlantic with speeds of 30+ mph. However, the upper-level atmosphere will undergo some major changes over the next 5 days that will include less shear and an upper-level building ridge to the north of the low. At the same time, a strong upper-level trough will dig into the central US and eventually the eastern US This strong trough will be critical to eventual movement – including curving to the north/northeast – & storm intensity. The added upper level ventilation from the trough may help intensify the storm…or at least sustain the storm as it eventually accelerates to the northeast. After this low, there will be a serious cold air invasion of the Lower 48 as the tropical system looks to be the catalyst for a reversal of the pattern reminiscent of the 2005 “Wilma” that hit Fl. October 24 and was followed/led by a deep trough moving along the Lower 48. The water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) over parts of the Atlantic basin along with many “vortices” (low pressure) along with “belts” of higher moisture near and ahead of fronts – common as we get deeper into autumn. “Nicole” will battle very dry air through at least midweek. Radar images courtesy of S. Florida Water Management District (the purple line is the forecast track for “Nicole”): Origin of the November Tropical Cyclone: The following climatology averages for the Atlantic basin through November: Wind shear: Saharan dust is blown west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can inhibit tropical cyclone development. However, sometimes the “wanna be” waves just wait until they get to the other side of – or away from – the plume and then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, too much is being made about the presence of Saharan dust and how…