Can Joe Biden Avoid the Curse of the Midterm Elections?
Republicans have momentum going into Election Day on Tuesday, with high hopes of winning back the House. The Senate will be decided by a handful of close races. If the GOP takes one or both chambers, they will be able to kill Biden’s domestic legislative agenda. However, they will struggle to overcome the president’s veto policies, which require a two-thirds majority to override. The next two years could see America run by a divided government, with angry rivalries, economic showdowns and partisan investigations.
In Parliament, all 435 seats are up for grabs, where lawmakers serve two-year terms. Democrats currently tightly control the chamber, but Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to take the majority.
A total of 35 seats are contested in the 100-seat Senate. The chamber where six-year incumbents serve is split 50-50, and Democrats are currently in control after Vice President Kamala Harris is tied. But Republicans only need a net gain of a single seat to take control.
There are also several other races to watch, including 36 skipper contests and many more lower positions. State-level Secretary of State races have taken on added importance this year, as they control state elections — including the 2024 presidential race. There are also elections for state legislatures and votes on issues such as abortion access, changes to voting systems , gun control measures and the legalization of recreational marijuana.
In every election, candidates tell voters that this is the most critical election of their lives. This time they might be right.
A wave of Republicans will sweep away many candidates who swear by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. The former President will likely arm a Republican-controlled House against Biden ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Rep. Kevin McCarthy – who would likely become the Republican Speaker if Republicans win – did not rule out impeaching Biden, though the absence of any evidence that he has committed an indictable offence.
A surprise Democratic victory would allow Biden to build on his social, health and climate change legislation and balance the judiciary with liberal judges after four years of conservative Trump picks.
Kevin McCarthy asked about impeaching Biden if the GOP wins the House. Listen to his answer
The cliché, “It’s the economy, stupid,” dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, is everywhere this election season. But it should be, “It’s inflation, stupid.” The cost of living in the US is at a 40-year high, making voters unhappy. High gas prices haven’t helped either, and the sense of post-pandemic normalcy that Biden promised remains elusive.
The President has struggled to frame the economic challenges in a strong political message or give voters any confidence that prices will fall soon. Some Democrats are now asking whether their candidates ignored the real concerns of voters by spending so much time arguing that Republicans would destroy US democracy.
Democrats hoped the conservative Supreme Court’s reversal of abortion rights would spark a backlash against the GOP. That could be the case in some areas – but the economy has repeatedly been the overriding concern of voters at the polls in the run-up to Election Day.
Republicans didn’t have to work too hard — their strategy was to just blame Biden for everything — even though inflation is mostly driven by external factors like the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. They have also characterized the Democrats’ positions on education, crime and immigration as extreme and far left of the mainstream.
House bellwethers: The best way to watch the results is to pick a few bellwether races that will give a sense of where the election is headed. If Republicans start making big gains in the suburbs and House districts where Biden was far more popular than Trump in 2020, it’s a good bet they’re in for a banner night.
Midterm elections: Here are the House races to watch
Given the narrow margin in the House, Republicans could effectively win a majority by sweeping contested seats in just one state like New York. A close battle is in a new seat created by post-Census redistricting — Colorado’s 8th Congressional District. if the Republicans win, they’re on a roll.
Another tight race is in Virginia’s 7th District, where former CIA officer and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is trying to win re-election against a Trump conservative, Republican Yesli Vega. If Democrats can hold on to this redrawn district, made more favorable to them in redistricting, it won’t mean they win the House, but it could signal they’re keeping the GOP tide below landslide levels. Spanberger, one of the most powerful Democratic lawmakers, has not hesitated to criticize the president or her party.
And keep an eye on Michigan’s 7th District, where another former CIA operative and Democratic Rep. Elisa Slotkin is running for re-election. Slotkin is a moderate who has distanced herself from increasingly progressive policies and criticized her party for not doing more to address the economic pain facing Americans.
Senate Battlegrounds: In the Senate, watch neck-and-neck battles in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. If Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan loses her re-election bid in New Hampshire, it’s sure to be the GOP’s night.
Pennsylvania represents the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Republican-held seat, but their candidate John Fetterman suffered a stroke shortly before winning the party’s nomination in May. Even off the campaign trail over the summer, Fetterman had the upper hand over his Republican challenger, but the pair’s recent spat has opened new questions about how the stroke’s lingering effects on the Democratic nominee.
Republicans are trying to win Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. If neither candidate in Georgia gets 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held in December, meaning uncertainty over who will lead the Senate for the next two years could linger for weeks.
These 3 races may determine the fate of the Senate 03:40 – Source: CNN
This is the first national election since the debacle of 2020, when Trump refused to concede defeat and tried to stay in power. Biden took office two weeks later with a message of healing and national unity. But his vision that America’s best angels could bring a polarized country together has been extinguished. Trump still won’t admit he lost and is using the lie that he was illegally forced out of office to launch an expected re-election bid. Millions of Americans believe him, creating tension among key supporters who could sweep the GOP back into power in Congress.
A key development to watch Tuesday is whether Republicans who lose races concede or, like Trump, insist they won and report nonexistent ballot irregularities. Another source of tension will arise in races where Republicans appear to be ahead in the vote count until large batches of early and mail-in ballots are simultaneously recorded. Trump used such a scenario to falsely cast doubt on the integrity of the 2020 election.
We don’t have to guess. The GOP is already telling us they will make Biden’s life miserable and try to destroy his re-election hopes. McCarthy told CNN in an exclusive interview that he plans to subject the White House to a blistering round of investigations into everything from the origins of Covid-19 to the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
McCarthy tells CNN first bill would deal with border security if GOP wins House
The GOP also plans to target Biden’s son Hunter for his business dealings and will seek to discredit and disrupt the FBI and Justice Department investigations into Trump. In the Senate, a Republican majority would make it extremely difficult for Biden to confirm cabinet appointments, key foreign ambassadors and judges. Expect a period of bitter controversy over budgets and the US government’s borrowing limit – a crisis that could throw the global economy into deeper turmoil.
History shows that newly elected presidents almost always face backlash in midterm elections two years later. This is why they set top legislative priorities at the start of their term.
If Democrats don’t fare as badly as some fear, Biden will get a boost as he considers whether to run for re-election. If Republicans win big, new questions will arise about his prospects in 2024. The president will turn 80 in a few weeks — a chance to celebrate, but also an unwelcome reminder of his own political obligations.
It’s not all dark for the president, though. His two Democratic predecessors, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, suffered debilitating rebuke from voters in the midterm elections, but rebounded to easily win re-election two years later. The question is, does Biden have the…
