There is growing concern about what Tuesday’s US midterm elections might mean for Ukraine and US support for the country, amid fears that a Republican surge could weaken US support in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials and lawmakers are scrutinizing polls and analyzing their counterparts’ comments. “We hope for our sakes that we don’t fall victim to the partisan debate that’s going on in the U.S. right now,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a former deputy prime minister of Ukraine and now an opposition lawmaker, told POLITICO. “That’s the fear, because we depend very heavily not only on American support, but also on US leadership in terms of sustaining the joint effort of other nations.”
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the likely next speaker if Republicans prevail, said last month that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine if the House is returned to Republican control. The Biden administration has sought to allay concerns about the administration’s commitment to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, but populist Republican sentiment in Congress is urging less support for Kyiv and more attention to the country’s domestic problems. USA.
“I’m worried about the Trump wing of the Democratic Party,” said Mia Willard, a Ukrainian-American who lives and works in Kyiv. I recently read about Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene’s promise that “not another penny will go to Ukraine” if Republicans regain control of Congress. According to the latest polling data, Republicans are favored to take the House and possibly the Senate in Tuesday’s vote. “I hope that regardless of the outcome of the election,” Willard said, “there will be continued bipartisan consensus to support Ukraine amid Russia’s genocide of the Ukrainian people, which I can call nothing but genocide after seeing from first hand Russia’s war crimes in the now occupied territories,” said Willard, who is a researcher at the International Center for Policy Studies in the Ukrainian capital. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is confident that US military and economic support for his country will continue after the midterm elections. “I don’t see a critical mass of people among Republicans calling for aid cuts,” he told POLITICO. At the same time, Klimkin acknowledged that the process for reviewing aid to Ukraine by Congress may become more complicated. Klimkin said he believes the US’s stance on Ukraine is “crucial” for Washington beyond the Ukrainian conflict — “not only in relation to Russia, but also how the US will be perceived by China.” . Voters line up outside the Cuyahoga County polling place in Cleveland, Ohio | Dustin Franz/AFP via Getty Images For Ukraine, Klimkin said the “real danger” is the debate taking place in Washington on both sides of the aisle about the fact that “the United States is giving much more than all of Europe” to Kiev’s war effort. According to the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, the US has raised its total commitments in military, economic and humanitarian aid to over 52 billion euros, while EU countries and institutions have reached a total of just over 29 billion euros. “The US now commits almost twice as much as all EU countries and institutions combined. This is a poor showing for the major European countries, especially since many of their pledges reach Ukraine with long delays,” said Christoph Trebesch, head of the team that compiles the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker.

Europe’s attitude

If Republicans prevail in Tuesday’s vote, the worry is also that without U.S. leadership, Ukraine would slip into Europe’s political agenda as well, depriving Ukraine of the support it needs to “defeat the Russian monster.” said Klympush-Tsintsadze. . If the worst happened and US support waned after the midterms, Klympush-Tsintsadze said she had some hope that Europe would hold firm. He has detected in Europe “a lot more sobriety in assessing what Russia is and what it can do, and I hope there will be enough voices there in Europe to make sure there is no weakening of support,” he said. Others are less sanguine about how robust and reliable the Europeans would be without Washington prodding and galvanizing. Several officials and lawmakers pointed to the Balkan wars of the 1990s and how the Clinton administration stood back, arguing that the Europeans should take the lead only to have to intervene diplomatically and militarily later. “We in Ukraine are closely following developments in the US and the shaping of Congress after the midterm elections,” said Iuliia Osmolovska, president of the Center for Transatlantic Dialogue and senior fellow at GLOBSEC, a global think tank based in Bratislava. A local resident rides a bicycle on a street in Izyum, eastern Ukraine on September 14, 2022 | Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images) “This may affect the existing determination of the US political establishment to continue to support Ukraine, mainly militarily. Especially with the voices of some Republicans calling for a freeze on support for Ukraine,” he said. However, Osmolovska remains optimistic, noting that “Ukraine has enjoyed bipartisan support in the war with Russia since the first days of the invasion in February this year.” He also believes President Joe Biden would have room to act more independently when it comes to military aid to Ukraine without seeking congressional approval thanks to legislation already in place. But he did not rule out “the risk of some exhaustion” from allies, arguing that Ukraine must redouble diplomatic efforts to prevent that. What needs to be emphasized, he said, is that “our Western partners only benefit from allowing Ukraine to defeat Russia as soon as possible” — as a protracted conflict is in no one’s interest. “There is a feeling in the air that we are winning the war, although it is far from over,” said Glib Dovgych, a software engineer in Kyiv. “If the flow of money and equipment is reduced, it will not mean our defeat, but it will mean a much bigger war with a much bigger loss of life. And as many other allies look to the US in their decisions to support us, if the US reduces the scale of its aid, other countries such as Germany, France and Italy would likely follow suit,” Dovgić said. Yaroslav Azhnyuk, president and co-founder of Petcube, a tech company that develops smart devices for pets, says “it’s clear that views on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are being used for internal political competition within the US.” He worries about the influence on American political opinion and US-based businessmen and investors, citing David Sacks, Elon Musk and Chamath Palihapitiya among others. “They have publicly split opinions, saying that Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia or that the US should stop supporting Ukraine to avoid a global nuclear war.” Azhnyuk added: “I get it, nukes are scary. But what happens in the next 5-10 years after Ukraine cedes any part of its territory or the conflict is frozen. Such a scenario would signal to the entire world that nuclear terrorism is at work.” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said that regardless of the results of the US midterms, Kyiv is “confident” that bipartisan support for Ukraine will remain in both houses of Congress. Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed solidarity with Ukraine, and that stance will remain “a reflection of the will of the American people,” he said. The Ukrainian side is counting on America’s leadership on important issues of defense assistance, in particular expanding the capability of the Ukrainian air defense system, financial support, strengthening sanctions against Moscow and recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, Podolyak told the POLITICO. And this is not just about Ukraine, said Klybus-Chinchatze, the former deputy prime minister. “Too many things in the world depend on this war,” he said. “It’s not just about restoring our territorial integrity. It’s not just about our freedom and our opportunity for the future, our survival as a nation and our survival as a country — it will have drastic consequences for the geopolitics of the world,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said.