With all the hubbub about horse racing, it might have been easy to forget that there are also 36 governors’ races tonight. But the results of these contests can have a greater impact on the daily lives of Americans than congressional races, as state governors have enormous influence on state-level policy issues such as health, education, tax policy and other. Since 2010, Republicans have held the majority of governorships. In fact, the GOP currently holds 28 gubernatorial seats, while Democrats control 22. That said, FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Forecast, now frozen, shows Republicans and Democrats poised for some pickups. Let’s take a look at some of the main trends and situations we’ll be watching — starting with the most controversial positions and ending with the least exciting matches. To start;
There are a lot of competitive races…
I’ll start with Kansas, where the incumbent Democrat has a lead. Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, is running for another term, but has only a 62 out of 100 chance of winning against Republican Derek Schmidt. Unlike some of the other races we’ll cover below, however, the competitiveness of this contest isn’t all that mysterious: Kansas is just a red state.
Republicans favored in our final midterm projections | FiveThirtyEight
Our model still leans toward Kelly, however, in part because she’s a relatively popular incumbent. A recent survey put her favorability at 53 percent among Kansas voters — 20 percentage points above President Biden’s. In addition, Kelly has worked to appeal to a wide range of voters by promoting issues important to Kansas Republicans, such as education and the economy, rather than focusing on more polarizing issues such as abortion. If Schmidt manages to overcome Kelly’s tenure and popularity advantage, it will likely be due to his past in state elections, combined with the fact that Schmidt (endorsed by former President Donald Trump) has taken more conservative positions in a gap year. where there is deep dissatisfaction with Democrats nationally. In short, a favorable intermediate environment may be enough to pull him over the finish line. However, other competitive races in our predictions lean more toward the Republicans. That’s true, at least, of both Arizona and Alaska (but other parties running in those states still have a chance, so we won’t count them out). Both states currently have Republican governors, so it may not be all that surprising that our polls suggest the GOP will remain in control. In Arizona, Republican Cary Lake has a 68 out of 100 chance of winning. As I mentioned at the top, governors hold a lot of power in their respective states, so it may come as a shock to some of our readers that Lake — who has been one of the main proponents of the baseless idea that the 2020 election was stolen by Trump — has a lead over Democrat Katie Hobbs. However, some factors could contribute to this, such as the fact that Lake has been in the news a lot lately and enjoys high name recognition due to his two decades as a local TV news anchor. Of course, Hobbes could go ahead. While she’s still an underdog, at least by our count, a September-October poll showed just over half of the state’s registered voters (51 percent) classified Lake’s views as “extreme.” And, as my colleagues and I discussed last month, it’s also entirely possible that our prediction for this seat is too good for the Republicans — meaning the race is closer than it looks. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy in Alaska has a bigger advantage: an 87-in-100 chance of winning. On Tuesday, the incumbent will share a ballot with independent Bill Walker, Democrat Les Gara and Republican Charlie Pierce. Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, however, makes this race a little harder to gauge. Under the system — which was first implemented during the August congressional special election won by Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola — voters are given the choice to rank who they want to fill a particular seat. And in recent months, Walker and Gara’s teams combined to encourage Pierce to drop out of the race and rally against Dunleavy, telling voters they were counting on each other’s second-place votes to win. If the gambit works, it could have a big impact on the race: Together, Walker and Gara made up more than 40 percent of the primary vote. However, with Dunleavy leading by a significant margin in recent polls, it makes sense why our model still favors a Republican win here. Other nail-biters in our forecast rank as flips, but may lean very slightly toward the Republicans. In fact, there are at least three seats where Democrats are in danger of losing control of the governorship in their respective states. In Nevada, relatively popular Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak is in danger of losing his re-election bid to Republican Joe Lombardo, however. As of Tuesday morning, our forecast gives the Republican a 61 in 100 chance of winning. Lombardo, who has tried to balance the demands of the more moderate and extremist wings of his party, has led by single digits in most recent polls. This contest should be watched closely, as it could push the state firmly to the right if Republicans also win control of the state legislature (which is possible, but unlikely). To help their party, however, Democrats such as former President Barack Obama visited Nevada, arguing that “democracy is on the ballot.” But in a swing state like Nevada, where the share of registered Democrats has declined, it’s very likely that Republicans will do well here in a favorable midterm year. Furthermore, Nevada is not reliably blue: Biden only won the state by a little more than 2 percentage points in 2020. Then there’s Wisconsin, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers must contend with both Biden’s unpopularity in the state and his own low approval ratings. Our forecast sees this race essentially as a clean toss-up between Evers and Republican Tim Michels, who currently has a 53-in-100 chance of defeating the incumbent. Perhaps ominously for Democrats, however, the state’s gubernatorial races have historically flown in the midterms: Republicans won them in 2010 and 2014, and Democrats won them in 2006 and 2018. Republicans could also have a shot at winning power in Oregon, which is an open seat race, unlike the contests taking place in Nevada and Wisconsin. Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is not up for re-election, but her lowest approval rating in the nation (according to a Morning Consult report published in October) could weigh on the Democrat trying to succeed her. Republican Christine Drazan has a slim 37-in-100 chance of defeating Democrat Tina Kotek, who would become the nation’s first openly lesbian governor (a milestone she would share with Massachusetts Democrat Maura Healey if both win). And going into Election Day, Kotek has a slight advantage: a 63 out of 100 chance of winning. That said, this race could prove difficult for the incumbent party because Oregon is not a deep-blue state: Former President George W. Bush nearly won the state in 2000, and voters elected Republican Dennis Richardson as secretary of state in 2016. making him the first GOP candidate to win a national race since 2002. What works in Kotek’s favor is that Oregon has consistently elected Democrats for governor since the late 1980s. The flip side, however, is that Democrats have only won recent gubernatorial races here by single digits (Republicans lost just 1.5 units in 2010, 5.8 units in 2014 and 6.4 units in 2018). Another interesting aspect to this race is the presence of a formidable third-party candidate on the ticket, independent Betsy Johnson. According to our poll average, Johnson is consistently in the high single digits — which is interesting considering the fact that few statewide races feature a truly competitive third wheel. What could work in her favor, too, is that she’s tried to position herself more in the middle, blasting Drazan for her anti-abortion views and Kotek for trying to make Oregon “woke and broke.”
… but there are also several matches that both sides have repeatedly tried and failed to overturn
Of course, while partisanship has grown over the years in gubernatorial races, voting history still matters. And for years, there have been some states where both parties have tried—and failed—to win seats from the opposing party. Some of them are on the ballot this year, and it doesn’t look like old patterns are likely to be broken. In Pennsylvania, for example, Democrat Josh Shapiro is clearly favored to win (he has a 97-in-100 chance of beating Republican Doug Mastriano). While Republicans held the governorship there in 2010, they failed to defeat Democrats in both 2014 and 2018, and things look bleak for them in 2022. That’s partly because Mastriano is a deeply controversial candidate: He ran and the two in the Jan. 6 riot and planned to overturn the results of Pennsylvania’s 2020 presidential election. That said, Democrats have had their share of seats they’ve tried unsuccessfully to flip over the years. Florida, for whatever reason, always seems to host competitive elections, no matter which way the political winds blow. (The 2010 gubernatorial election was decided by 1.1 points, 2014 by 1.1 points, and 2018 by 0.4 points.) This year seems likely to be an exception, however, as Gov. Ron DeSantis consistently leads by double digits in more research…
