According to final polling averages, Republicans are expected to win enough seats in the House of Representatives to regain control of the lower house of Congress – which they will use to block Biden’s agenda and launch investigations into his administration. But the balance of power in the Senate will hinge on the outcome of a handful of races — particularly in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia — heading into the final stretch of the campaign. As of Monday afternoon, more than 41 million Americans had already voted by voting early either in person or by mail, indicating a high turnout that could surpass the 122 million people who voted in the 2018 midterm elections. Elisabeth Reinkordt, 39, an education communications specialist in South Philadelphia, voted for Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race early Tuesday after a campaign season she described as a lot to take in. “It’s sad to think that something that should be a proud and joyful act has now been made to have this culture of fear around it,” he said. Asked if the candidates on the ballot have risen to address the most pressing challenges for voters in the state — particularly the economy — she said, “I’m not disappointed in anybody. There’s a lot that resonates with Fetterman — he has, and I hesitate to use that word, an old idea of populism, of a government for the people.’ US political strategists say that in a highly polarized environment, the outcome of Tuesday’s election will depend on which side does a better job of getting its traditional voter base to the polls in key constituencies. But changes in sentiment among independent voters could also be critical in the tightest contests, including whether college-educated women in the suburbs will stick with Democrats and to what extent Republicans might win among Hispanics and blacks voters. Four years ago, a backlash against Donald Trump led Democrats to a majority in the House, but this year the political winds have shifted in the opposite direction, amid voter dissatisfaction with high inflation, crime and immigration that favored the Republicans. Democrats have regained some ground after the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion and investigations into Trump’s links to the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol and his mishandling of troves of sensitive national security documents at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
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But that recovery stalled last month as Republicans closed ranks behind their nominees, including many who embraced and defended Trump, and Democrats struggled to come up with a strong final message on the economy ahead of the latest discouraging data on consumer prices. Political spending throughout the 2022 midterm cycle, in both state and federal races, is projected to exceed $16.7 billion, according to data released Thursday by OpenSecrets, as campaigners and allies they were trying to win over voters. Democrats have raised more than $1.1 billion from grassroots donors this year, more than double that of grassroots Republicans, according to filings for the party’s fundraising platforms, WinRed and ActBlue. But Republicans have relied heavily on outside spending and big donors to push their candidates in key races. Pro-GOP outside groups such as super political action committees and hybrid Pacs have spent nearly $1.1 billion in this cycle’s midterm elections, about 50 percent more than pro-Democratic groups have spent.
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About half of that amount came from just 10 Republican donors, including $77 million from Richard Uihlein, $67 million from Ken Griffin, $44 million from Jeff Yass and $40 million from Timothy Mellon. Steve Schwarzman, Peter Thiel and Larry Ellison have each given between $31 million and $34 million to these groups. In addition to the new lawmakers in Congress, Tuesday’s vote also includes key races for state governor, with Democrats Kathy Hochul and Gretchen Whitmer battling for re-election in New York and Michigan, respectively, while Republicans Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott they are looking for new terms. Florida and Texas, respectively. The governor’s race in Arizona will also be closely watched, with Carrie Lake, a former TV news anchor backed by Trump, in a tight race with Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake declined to say whether she would accept the results of her election if she loses, amid concerns that some Republicans could seek to challenge the official vote counts as they did in 2020. Recommended On Monday night, Biden traveled to Maryland for his final midterm rally to support Wes Moore, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate who is widely expected to win his race. Meanwhile, Trump campaigned in Ohio for JD Vance, the former venture capitalist, author and one-time critic of the former president who is running for a Senate seat. Biden and Trump have indicated they want to run for the presidency again in 2024, setting up a possible rerun of the 2020 vote — but their decisions could be swayed by the results of Tuesday’s election. From both parties, there are voices calling privately and even publicly for alternatives to emerge in the race for the White House. They could be encouraged by the weak performances of both men’s preferred candidates.
