Comment Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Florida’s east coast as Subtropical Storm Nicole heads toward the Sunshine State. Confidence is rising that the storm could be near or at hurricane strength as it makes landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast Wednesday night. Rain, strong winds and coastal flooding may begin along Florida’s east coast early Wednesday, with conditions worsening in the afternoon and especially overnight. Hurricane warnings — representing the threat of winds of up to 74 mph — extend from Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia county line. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the rest of Florida’s east coast north of Miami, as well as the southern Georgia coast, indicating a high potential for tropical storm impacts. Monitoring Subtropical Storm Nicole Strong onshore winds, mainly near and north of Nicole’s center, could cause “life-threatening” storm surge flooding as water piles up on the coast during multiple tidal cycles, according to the National Hurricane Center. A storm surge warning, for dangerously high water over normal land, covers the east coast of Florida and parts of coastal Georgia. Meanwhile, tropical storm watches have been extended to include Florida’s gulf side, mostly north of Bonita Beach to the Big Bend area. That includes Port Charlotte and Fort Myers, both hit hard by Category 4 Ian just six weeks ago, as well as the greater Tampa area. An ocean surge of up to several feet could affect areas around Tampa Bay and just north on Florida’s west coast. this area is under a storm watch. Nicole, or the remnants of Nicole, will sweep up the East Coast Friday through the weekend, dumping heavy rain from the Carolinas to Canada. For many locations, an entire month’s worth of rain could fall in just 24 hours. As of Tuesday morning, Nicole was 350 miles northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. Maximum winds were estimated at 50 mph and the storm was moving west at 9 mph. Nicole is a subtropical storm, meaning it is a hybrid system that has characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical systems. Consequently, its wind field is vast — tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph extend outward as much as 380 miles from the center. On the satellite, Nicole was starting to show some signs that she might be getting a little more tropical. That said, it’s still one-sided. There is a clear surface cloud swirl, but most of the storm activity is shifting north of the center. Passing over warm waters, Nicole is forecast to gradually intensify by Wednesday, reaching hurricane strength near the northwestern Bahamas, which are under a hurricane warning. Nicole is likely to make landfall somewhere between Fort Lauderdale and Daytona Beach late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds near 75 mph. Tropical storm-force winds could begin 18 hours or more before arrival – or as soon as Wednesday afternoon in southeast Florida and Wednesday afternoon toward the Treasure and Space coasts. Persistent overland flow will lead to coastal flooding over several tidal cycles. In fact, most of Florida’s Atlantic coastline should see a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet. That may not sound like much, but tens of thousands of homes in Florida are within 5 feet of sea level. The National Weather Service wrote that the surge could have “significant impacts,” especially from Palm Beach northward with damage to buildings, marinas, docks and piers, as well as washed-out roads and extensive beach erosion. “Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should … be completed before conditions become hazardous,” the National Weather Service wrote. “Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or unnecessary risk[ing] he lives.” Showers and showers will turn inland early Wednesday morning, but will increase in coverage and intensity in the afternoon. A few of the storms, mostly within 20 miles of Florida’s east coast, could produce tornadoes or water bodies north of the storm’s center, especially between Palm Beach and near Daytona Beach. Winds will be in the 30 to 45 mph range Wednesday along the coastline, but will increase to 45 to 60 mph within about 50 miles of Nicole’s center, with gusts up to 75 mph possible within its narrow core. A widespread rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with local totals of 6 to 8 inches can be expected in eastern Florida, with an inch or two less in the west. “Flooding and urban flooding will be possible in parts of peninsular Florida along with renewed river rise in parts of the St. Johns River,” the Hurricane Center wrote. Water levels in the St. Johns River north of Orlando were at moderate flood Monday morning from the lingering effects of Hurricane Ian’s rains in late September. Rains from Nicole this week are expected to cause the river to rise near major flood stage again. pic.twitter.com/6ZzJXRhdbn — Jeff Masters (@DrJeffMasters) November 7, 2022 Eventually, Nicole’s water circulation and remnants will flow up the east coast from an approaching trough or plunge into the jet stream. Its moisture will gather along a cold front wrapped across the Appalachians, bringing 2 to 3.5 inches of rain between there and Interstate 95. The key time frame for this rain event will be Friday and Saturday. If Nicole makes landfall in Florida at hurricane strength, it would be a highly unusual event: The Lower 48 has only recorded five November landfalling hurricanes since the mid-1850s. That would make it a once-in-a-lifetime event. about 30 to 40 years.
