The Mariners, trailing 8-1 after five innings, rallied for a 10-9 victory that stunned the sold-out crowd and sent Seattle to the AL Division Series against the Astros. But that was last month. Now, the calendar has changed and the focus for both teams is firmly on 2023, not 2022. No hard feelings, right? With that in mind, how about we 1977 expansion fans get together to make a deal to officially kick off what could be a very interesting offseason for both clubs? Despite their success in 2022, the Mariners and Blue Jays have had their share of warts. There is no such thing as a perfect team. Every team has a to-do list they need to keep track of, and that’s where we offer our help. Esteemed Blue Jays writer Kaitlyn McGrath and I put our heads together to come up with a trade that works for both clubs. Dear Readers: Read it again. This is the first winter movement we recommend. It’s not the only movement. So without further ado, here’s the deal we’re suggesting with some context as to what each team is looking for this winter and why this particular deal might work. — Corey Brock
The agreement
The Mariners trade right-handed pitchers Chris Flexen and Penn Murfee to the Jays for second baseman Santiago Espinal and right-handed pitcher Alejandro Melean.
Why would Seattle do this?
I think it’s abundantly clear what the Mariners need most this offseason: offense, and more of it. Surely you haven’t forgotten about the 18 scoreless innings in the decisive game of the ALDS against the Astros, right? OK, that might be a little unfair (the Astros have been pretty good), but the point is: If the Mariners hope to win 90 games for a third straight season — it feels weird to type that — they’re going to need more production from the offense. The good news is that there are more than a few ways they can accomplish that goal this winter, and we’ll get more into that as we move deeper into the offseason. For now, adding Espinal is a very nice starting point. — Brock
Why would Toronto do this?
One of the roster gaps the Blue Jays must fill is the mid-rotation job previously held by Ross Stripling, who stepped in as Hyun Jin Ryu’s replacement in June and has become one of the team’s most consistent starters. Stripling is free now, and the timing couldn’t be better for him after a career-high season. The Blue Jays could choose to bring him back, but in the initial pitching market, he stands out as a fit for multiple clubs. Toronto can outbid. To fill out their starting rotation, they may be able to go the trade route using their surplus of position players. The Blue Jays also need more help for their bullpen. Obviously, the last memory of Toronto’s bullpen against the Mariners wasn’t good, but it’s fair to say that for most of the year, they were good, with their ERA right in the middle of the pack in the AL. But the fine isn’t good enough — especially when a team has championship aspirations like the Blue Jays. — Caitlin McGrath
Because this works for the Mariners
Let’s be honest: The Mariners have a guy. They go on and on about the virtues of control or dominating the strike zone, and they’re not wrong to do so, honestly. Offensively, that equates to more walks, fewer strikeouts. They like bat-to-ball guys (if they can get them). And it’s great for run prevention. Friends, Espinal would be a good fit – and a good start – to start this offseason. Let me tell you why. Espinal is 27 but coming off a 2.3 fWAR season. He can play shortstop and third base as well, but the Mariners would slide him to second base and let him go. Espinal is a .280 hitter in just over 800 major league plate appearances and .286 in the minors. He has a 14 percent strikeout rate and an 8 percent walk rate for his career. And he’s a very good defender wherever you put him. How good, you ask? Espinal was plus-four in defensive runs saved last season. Two years ago, he played third base for the Jays and was a plus eight. Plus eight is elite. GO DEEPER How Blue Jays’ Santiago Espinal blew through every door to become an everyday player Is this the sexy move you’ve been waiting for? No, probably not. Will he make the Mariners better in 2023? It should, although a lot of it depends on what else the team does. This is just a start. What you’ve done by adding Espinal – who will likely make over $2 million in 2023 – is add a solid bat to the bottom of the order. I think adding an everyday player that you control for four more years is a good way to maximize Flexen’s value. Flexen will be a free agent after 2023, so adding Murfee, who had a breakout year in 2022, to the deal makes sense from Toronto’s end, even if it leaves a hole in Seattle’s bullpen. But remember, the Mariners hope to get Casey Sadler back sometime in 2023, and there are ways to cover the loss of Murfee moving forward. The Mariners have their warts just like any other team. Assembling a competent bathrobe is not one of them. Melean is a 22-year-old righty who had a 3.34 ERA in two minor-league stops in 2022. He has a plus slider and changeup, and maybe the Mariners’ pitching group can convince him to get more velocity down the road. Either way, it’s a lottery. Espinal, however, is not. He does a lot of the things the Mariners – and good other teams – appreciate. — Brock
Because this works for the Jays
The Flexen doesn’t throw particularly hard and doesn’t hit a ton of batters. But since returning to the majors in 2021 after reinventing himself as a pitcher in South Korea, the 28-year-old right-hander has been consistent and durable as a middle-of-the-rotation arm, posting a 3.66 ERA in 64 appearances, including 53 starts. Flexen isn’t flashy, but the Blue Jays don’t need a flasher to replace Stripling. In fact, looking at Flexen’s Baseball Savant page, guess who is one of the pitchers listed among those most like him? Stripling, of course. They are pitchers who rely on precise command and a difficult changeup to succeed. Like Stripling, Flexen has proven capable of swinging between the rotation and the bullpen. Flexen would give the Blue Jays a starter they can trust to throw five to six innings every fifth day and keep them in games. And, if one of their second-half pitching prospects – ahem, Ricky Tiedemann, ahem, Flexen – could play a bullpen role. GO DEEPER Finding Flexen: How the KBO scout led the Mariners to sign the revamped starter Flexen is also an $8 million deal in 2023. With the Blue Jays’ roster getting more expensive — their 2023 payroll is currently projected at more than $190 million, per Roster Resource — the trade for Flexen could be a value play. He’ll likely be cheaper than Stripling, and he’s a free agent after the season, so he’s not a steep commitment either. This shouldn’t be Toronto’s only move to begin with. Maybe they make a run at Justin Verlander or someone at the top of the free agent market. But Flexen gives them some credibility that they lacked in 2022. Murfee is coming off a career season, pitching to a 2.99 ERA in 64 appearances with a nearly 28% strikeout rate. He’s a latecomer, but thanks to his unique arm angle, wipeout slider and excellent command, he’s been a key reason why the Mariners’ bullpen has been one of the best in 2022. He’s a 28-year-old reliever who only touches 89 mph with does his fastball make me nervous? For sure. But the Blue Jays have Adam Cimber, who is similar, and he makes it work. Relievers are especially volatile, so that part of the deal could fall through. But Murfee’s half-time slider has held batters to a .125 batting average and .272 slugging percentage with a 32.4 percent whiff rate in 2022. It’s a real weapon that could bring some much-needed swing and miss. in Toronto pen. Murfee would come with plenty of team control as he is still in his pre-referee years. The Blue Jays would still need more help in their bullpen, of course, but Murfee could be another piece to that puzzle. The transition from Espinal is really difficult. The 27-year-old has been a feel-good story in 2022, producing an outstanding first half and being named to his first All-Star team. His defense in the middle would also be lacking. But this might be the time to trade him at the peak of his value. With Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio, Otto Lopez and the emergence of infield prospect Addison Barger, the Blue Jays have plenty of other utility options at their disposal. — McGrath (Espinal photo by Steven Bisig/USA Today)
