Climate action has retreated under the leadership of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who had to block the country’s highest court from overturning Mexico’s modest greenhouse gas targets, and emissions are rising. John Kerry, the US climate envoy, said last week that the Mexican president, known as Amlo, would make a major announcement about the country’s climate commitments during Cop27. No official announcement has yet been made and Amlo is not expected to attend the UN summit in Egypt, but reports suggest the announcements will include:

Reducing methane emissions from state oil company Pemex – an important but existing goal for which Pemex has been fined for non-compliance. A 1,000 MW state-owned solar plant is already underway for a 180 MW project, and the government had already ruled out further investment to expand the energy potential. A lithium binding. Mexico has the ninth largest identified deposits of lithium – a critical mineral for electric vehicles and other green technologies – but there has been no government investment so far to promote mining, and none is currently being mined. Experts say the country is years away from producing the first gram of lithium.

“It is very possible that the Mexican government will try to deceive the entire world at Cop27 with fake actions and projects that will never be built,” said Carlos Flores, a renewable energy expert in Mexico. “We are not going to keep our current commitments, never mind anything more ambitious.” According to carbon action tracker, a non-profit science group that monitors government climate action, Mexico’s climate policies under Amlo “continue to regress, as fossil fuel use takes precedence and policies and institutions related with the climate they are abolished. For Mexico to achieve even its outdated 2030 climate commitments, it must reverse its policies, move away from fossil fuels, promote renewable energy and address the transportation sector.” Amlo’s 10-point climate action plan, which he presented at the Major Economies Forum (MEF) on energy and climate hosted by Joe Biden in June, included the acquisition and construction of new oil refineries. His government has also disbanded Mexico’s National Climate Change Institute and federal climate change fund, which rank Mexico among the worst climate governments in the world. Mexico has huge potential for renewable energy, but Amlo has backed away from many projects, while drawing criticism for imposing others (including wind and hydro) on indigenous lands without proper consultation. Flores added: “There is no way to look positively at climate action from an administration that is focused on undermining renewable energy. In order for Mexico to achieve its goals in Paris, we will need a new president in 2024 who can regain the confidence of investors and have a real commitment to the environment.”